Every nursing program advertises its NCLEX pass rate. Almost none put their dropout rate next to it, and that is the number that decides whether you become a nurse. A pass rate only counts the students who make it to the exam. A program can lose half its class along the way and still report 100%.
How big is the gap?
Four state agencies (California, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Illinois) publish completion figures for each nursing program, and some programs post their own. Across the 375 programs where we have both numbers:
- The typical associate-degree (ADN) program finishes about 69% of its students on time; the typical bachelor’s (BSN) program about 82%.
- Of the 162 programs with a first-time pass rate of 95% or higher, 52 finish fewer than 60% of the students who start.
- The widest gap: a program with a 96% pass rate that finishes 21% of its students. Of every 100 who start, about 20 become licensed nurses on schedule.
A pass rate tells you how ready a program’s graduates are. Completion tells you how likely you are to become one.
The number to ask for: start-to-license
Multiply the two: completion rate × first-time pass rate. That is how many of every 100 students who start finish on time and pass the NCLEX on the first try. A program that finishes 51% with a 100% pass rate puts 51 of 100 starters into a license on time; a program that finishes 90% with a 95% pass rate puts 86. The second program is far better for you, though its brochure number is lower.
Our nursing-school rankings now show this number on every program where the completion rate is published, and completion counts as much as the pass rate in the default score. Programs that keep their rate private are scored below the typical program until they publish it. The full methodology lists every source and definition.
Do nursing schools publish dropout rates?
Some do, if you know where to look:
- ACEN-accredited programs (most associate-degree programs) must post their on-time completion rate on their website, usually on a page called “Program Outcomes,” “Student Achievement,” or “Consumer Information.”
- CCNE-accredited programs (most bachelor’s programs) must keep completion at 70% or above, but they are not required to publish the figure, and many don’t. Ask for it.
- A few state boards publish every program’s rate. California’s Board of Registered Nursing, the Kentucky Board of Nursing, Mississippi’s IHL, and Illinois’s IDFPR are the four we use today.
Don’t accept the college’s overall graduation rate as a stand-in. Across the programs where we have both, it barely predicts the nursing program’s rate, and at community colleges it runs far lower because students transfer and study part time.
Questions to ask any program
- Of the students who started nursing courses three years ago, how many graduated on time?
- Does that rate exclude anyone (students who left for “personal reasons,” transfers)?
- How many students are dismissed for failing a course, and is there a second chance?
- Do you hold back students who fail an exit exam (such as a predictor test) from graduating?
- How many first-time test-takers were behind last year’s pass rate?
The last two matter because a program can raise its pass rate by keeping weaker students from testing, and a small class makes any single year’s rate swing. Our rankings steady small cohorts toward the national average for the same reason.
Why programs lose students, and what you control
Most nursing attrition happens in the first two semesters, when pharmacology, pathophysiology, and the first med-surg course arrive together and passing grades rise to 75–80%. The students who make it usually are not the ones who studied longest; they are the ones who studied with practice questions and retrieval from week one instead of rereading notes. If you are about to start, our first-semester guide covers the plan.